This morning, former Christopher Newport University Professor, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow and elections analyst/modeler Rachel Bitecofer is out with her forecasts for this November’s elections – “Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections” – and it’s well worth a read. Just last Friday, the senior fellow at the Niskanen Center in Washington appeared on HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher.” Support our journalism. Niskanen center 2020 prediction. Predictit Model . (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication. Read the full analysis here. Senior researcher at the Niskanen Center Rachel Bitecofer is no stranger to political forecasting, skyrocketing in popularity after nailing the 2018 midterms with near total accuracy. “Cunningham’s fortunes in NC, as well as those of many of the Democratic candidates in the down-ticket state legislative races. Four got it wrong, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball and PredictIt were the only two that got it right. Studies that are able to distinguish these factors are rare, but when those factors are brought into account, the average climate sensitivity from data-based methods is well inside the IPCC range. My name is These websites predict Biden will between 323 to 392 electoral votes and Biden would have over 90% chance of winning. “Unless the pandemic has a massive disruptive effect on the election itself, “If you’re reading this, you only have one burning question —. Studies that are able to distinguish these factors are rare, but when those factors are, Niskanen Center on Climate Sensitivity: The Science is Uncertain, alternative estimates outside of the modeling community, https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/niskanen-climate-sensitivity-1-2020/, Deep Branch: CO2 and Hydrogen Could Help Fuel a Greener Meat Industry, Humanity and Wild Nature Will Likely Both Be Flourishing in 2100, Don’t Penalize Companies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Niskanen Center (last updated Sept. 15): Biden, 318; Trump 123; Toss-up, 97 – Totals on Aug. 31: Biden, 318; Trump, 125; Toss-up, 95. Earlier today, Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center and Swing Left Political Director Ashlei Blue joined the Virginia Women’s Summit to provide their predictions for the 2020 elections. Humanity and nature will be flourishing in 2100, here’s why: https://t.co/WhUYjud8Li https://t.co/USfWgkRlbV, Organizers of Transportation and Climate Initiative announced Monday that only 4 of the 12 states involved have agr… https://t.co/Q6ijjty53J, To welcome our new Executive Director, Gregory Wrightstone, we’d like to take a moment to highlight his best-sellin… https://t.co/BnWvyhSyoW, Dr. Lars Schernikau presents on the future of energy, and how coal will contribute to that future. Niskanen center rachel bitecofer. The upper range is in net negative territory where rapid market adaptation would be necessary. Now, her predictions are beating the (nerdy) boys. To be released Tuesday, April 28. And That’s a Very Good Thing. Check out the video below, including highlights such as: Rachel Bitecofer reiterated her view that Joe Biden should pick an African-American woman as his running mate. I reproduce it verbatim for the historical record (the Center is notorious for shifts in overall descriptions and particular analysis given their eclectic mission). Sign and send the petition to your U.S. senators: Focus on COVID-19 relief immediately, not Trump’s judicial nominations. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is wide and not expected to come down soon. Overall, Bitecofer expects Democrats not just to hold the U.S. House, but to add to their majority. Niskanen Center Before the House Energy & Commerce Committee Subcommittee on Energy Hearing on “Modernizing the Natural Gas Act to Ensure it Works for Everyone.” February 5, 2020 Mr. Chairman, thank you for the opportunity to testify today as to some of the problems plaguing the use of eminent domain under the Natural Gas Act. “Whatever 2020 turnout is, barring something extraordinary that disrupts the election, if more Democrats and left-leaning independents vote than did so in 2016 and pure independents break against Trump and congressional Republicans. In recent years, a series of studies that compared the measured change in global average temperature with the increase in CO2 found lower values of climate sensitivity than the average climate model simulates; for equilibrium climate sensitivity these studies typically suggest values that are less than 2 °C. The cooling effect from pollution in the Northern Hemisphere might have the same cooling effect, globally averaged, as a decline in solar intensity, but different outcomes in terms of global temperature. P.S. The only website with all the 2020 Presidential Election Predictions ... Niskanen and Electoral Votes. Shift of 2 electoral votes to toss-up expands Biden lead to 195. Voters decided: Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States! Florida was the other state that defied prediction by many. The Niskanen Center's rejection of the traditional libertarian position on free markets in favor of regulated mixed markets, and its embrace of an incremental approach to achieve political victories, has come under broader criticism, particularly on the global warming issue. The “It-Girl” of political forecasting, Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, a 42-year-old election forecaster and senior fellow at The Niskanen Center, will headline the panel with Kornacki. To convincingly refine our estimates of climate sensitivity will likely require both breakthroughs in climate physics (particularly, a better understanding of how cloud cover will act to accentuate or reduce temperature trends) and enough time to pass that we can accumulate more high-quality measurements of the real-world response to today’s climate drivers. Additionally, there is some evidence that the methods used to estimate climate sensitivity from data do not properly account for other external factors that influence climate change. The bottom end, as projected by models and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is in net positive territory, according to leading climate economists. “Democrats need at least one more seat to secure 50. See below for a few general, and Virginia-related, takeaways (bolding added by me for emphasis), as well as predictions for the U.S. Senate race in Virginia (“Safe D” for Mark Warner); and key, competitive U.S. House races in Virginia (“Safe D” for Rep. Jennifer Wexton in VA-10, “Likely D” for Rep. Abigail Spanberger in VA-07, “Lean D” for Rep. Elaine Luria in VA-02 and “Likely R” for Rep. Denver Riggleman in VA-05). ), “Safe D” for Rep. Jennifer Wexton in VA-10, “Likely D” for Rep. Abigail Spanberger in VA-07, “Lean D” for Rep. Elaine Luria in VA-02, Professor Rachel Bitecofer Releases Her Eagerly Anticipated 2020 Congressional Elections Forecast, Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections, check out Professor Bitecofer’s entire analysis. The degree of climate sensitivity is central to the predictions of climate change. Surprisingly, and to their credit, the Niskanen Center (Joseph Majkut; Nader Sobhani cover climate issues) has fairly portrayed the unsettled science around climate sensitivity. Inherent problems preclude climate models from giving more precise forcing estimates to then apply to an emission scenario. Niskanen Center (Bifecourt Model) Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com. And they have five viable options. Internal Links; External Links; Mobile Friendly; Niskanen Center - Niskanen Center Originally appeared on the The Political Trade […] This has led many to publicly argue that projections of future climate change should be revised downward. The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Connecticut was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the five U.S. While the range of sensitivity found in climate models is similar to the values that come from other lines of evidence, 1.5-4.5 °C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, some argue that these estimates are too high. The degree of climate sensitivity is central to the predictions of climate change. She was largely unknown in the male-dominated world of political forecasting until November 2018, when she nailed the Democrats’ win in the House. ... Ryan Gest - Election Prediction Official (Youtube only) States voting the same since year 2000 Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com. CNU Professor Rachel Bitecofer Is Really Having a Moment. This morning, former Christopher Newport University Professor, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow and elections analyst/modeler Rachel Bitecofer is out with her forecasts for this November’s elections … Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Bitecofer gained notoriety in prediction markets after accurately forecasting the 2018 midterms. A symposium, "Prescient Predictions: Who Won 2020," will be offered during a virtual town hall July 26 at 3 p.m. “[Democrats’] success in Maine (and elsewhere) will be contingent on how closely they marry Collins to Trump…Both Arizona and Colorado are much easier ground than Maine is, because both states offer racial diversity, while Maine is 94 percent white. 66.1% probability of Biden winning, with an average of 313 electoral votes. The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. The Niskanen Center is a 501(c)3 libertarian issue advocacy organization that works to change public policy through direct engagement in the policymaking process. Teams are only playing in the division, so the Penguins will … It has proven difficult for scientists to narrow the wide range of values for climate sensitivity because of limits in the records of past changes and the relative influence of different climate agents. Both outcomes likely lie a couple decades hence, until then decisions will have to be made with some ambiguity in the potential climate response. Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, a professor at Christopher Newport University, has penned a dire 2020 election forecast for the Republican Party. “To refine our estimates of climate sensitivity will require breakthroughs in climate physics and more high-quality measurements…. The 2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. THE NISKANEN CENTER | 820 FIRST ST. NE, SUITE 675 | WASHINGTON, D.C. 20002 www.niskanencenter.org | For media inquiries, please contact ltavlas@niskanencenter.org Public Interest Comment But this “backcast” analysis is ad hoc and on the fly, not certain science. That comparison may be biased toward too low values, because global temperature records poorly represent changes in the Arctic and record changes in sea surface temperature instead of the faster warming air above the sea level. Niskanen Center on Climate Sensitivity: The Science is Uncertain. September 15: Alaska moves from Safe Republican to Toss-up; Arizona and Florida from Leans to Likely Democratic; ME-2 from Toss-up to Likely Republican; Nevada and … Michael and Rachel Bitecofer delve into how this changes the political landscape for 2020. Climate activists, whether scientists or members of a nongovernmental organization (NGO), eschew direct debate. April 27, 2020. The CO2 Coalition was established in 2015 as a 501(c)(3) for the purpose of educating thought leaders, policy makers, and the public about the important contribution made by carbon dioxide to our lives and the economy. And to prediction market… The current 2020 Electoral College projection from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. This content was created by a Daily Kos Community member. But the holy grail of climate sensitivity to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, the enhanced greenhouse effect, remains in stubborn dispute today as in the 1980s. However, viewing only one type of evidence in isolation can lead to logical errors when excluded lines of evidence refute very high and very low values. WASHINGTON, D.C., – On Tuesday, April 28 the Niskanen Center will release senior fellow and election forecaster Rachel Bitecofer’s long-awaited race ratings for the 2020 House and Senate elections. Addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, economic well-being, and health care were top priorities during the November election.... Sign the petition: TRUMP MUST IMMEDIATELY CONCEDE and Congress must ensure he steps down. Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com. The NHL’s pause didn’t hurt many more teams than it did the Philadelphia Flyers. And That’s a Very Good Thing. See below for a few general, and Virginia-related, takeaways (bolding added by me for emphasis), as well as predictions for the U.S. Senate race … I first learned about Rachel Bitecover a couple of years ago, because she started her new vocation as an election prediction expert with the 2017 election in Virginia, where I live. Subscribe today. With that, check out Professor Bitecofer’s entire analysis, which is top-notch (I agree with pretty much all of it, although I’d probably make VA-02 “Likely D” and VA-07 “Lean D”), as well as the following “takeaways” that jumped out at me. The microphysics of climate–think clouds–are sub-grid scale. The reader is invited to ask: is this settled science. Rachel Bitecofer joins host Jeff Joseph to discuss election forecasting in more than a dozen prediction markets. Daily Kos moves in solidarity with the Black community. This article appeared on the MasterResource website at https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/niskanen-climate-sensitivity-1-2020/. More likely than not, it’s probably true that robots won’t eat all the jobs. When those errors are compensated for in scientific studies, by appropriately sampling climate models to reflect the actual temperature record, there is no statistically significant difference in the estimates of climate sensitivity that come from data and models. Different lines of evidence (e.g., basic physics, comparisons to past ice ages, and the temperature response to human influence) strongly refute sensitivities much higher or lower than the IPCC. 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